Will the Bills win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 62¢ · $53 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$52.65
$4.88
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $20.57 | $27.21 | +$6.64 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $20 | $19.25 | -$2 | 52% 6135-5765 (11900) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $5.83 | $6.08 | +$0.25 | 68% 740-356 (1096) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.