Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate by 50+ bps at the January meeting?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $317 held · ends Jan 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$317.08
$2.26
98.7¢ → 99.4¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 99¢ | $222.78 | $223.65 | +$0.87 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $28.65 | $29.82 | +$1.17 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.82 | -$0.15 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.88 | -$0.1 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $13.43 | $13.91 | +$0.48 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
Invested
$222.78
Value
$223.65
PnL
+$0.87
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$28.65
Value
$29.82
PnL
+$1.17
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.82
PnL
-$0.15
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.88
PnL
-$0.1
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$13.43
Value
$13.91
PnL
+$0.48
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.