Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 94¢ · $147 held · ends Feb 22, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$147.42
$3.84
88.6¢ → 94¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
195h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $64.81 | $70.5 | +$5.69 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $45.41 | $46.57 | +$1.17 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $6.4 | $4.8 | -$1.6 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $4.7 | +$0.3 | 39% 1309-2008 (3317) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $0.54 | -$1 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $0.81 | $0.31 | -$0.51 | 26% 1234-3522 (4756) |
Invested
$64.81
Value
$70.5
PnL
+$5.69
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$45.41
Value
$46.57
PnL
+$1.17
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.2
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$1.6
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0.3
Record
39%
1309-2008 (3317)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$1
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$0.51
Record
26%
1234-3522 (4756)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.