Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 23
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$158.29
$5.35
91¢ → 96¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $75.96 | $79.6 | +$3.64 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $45.89 | $48.2 | +$2.31 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $16.01 | $16.04 | +$0.03 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $11.93 | $12.45 | +$0.52 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $2.32 | $1.45 | -$0.87 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.83 | $0.55 | -$0.27 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
Invested
$75.96
Value
$79.6
PnL
+$3.64
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$45.89
Value
$48.2
PnL
+$2.31
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$16.01
Value
$16.04
PnL
+$0.03
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.93
Value
$12.45
PnL
+$0.52
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0.87
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.83
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.27
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.