Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $64 held · ends Feb 4, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Feb 4, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$64.49

Combined PnL

$39.05

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$54.51

Total Shares158

Combined PnL+$13.73

No1 trader

Total Value$9.98

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$25.32

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$2.35	$19.22	+$16.87	17% 397-1989 (2386)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$7.15	$16.22	-$6.39	38% 7188-11813 (19001)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.2	$11.04	+$10.84	27% 2550-6957 (9507)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 24.9¢	$9.97	$9.98	+$25.32	47% 10383-11860 (22243)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$0.77	$4.7	+$3.93	23% 1810-6079 (7889)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$54.4	$3.33	-$11.51	27% 621-1686 (2307)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$19.22

PnL

+$16.87

Record

17%

397-1989 (2386)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.15

Value

$16.22

PnL

-$6.39

Record

38%

7188-11813 (19001)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$10.84

Record

27%

2550-6957 (9507)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$25.32

Record

47%

10383-11860 (22243)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.77

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$3.93

Record

23%

1810-6079 (7889)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.4

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$11.51

Record

27%

621-1686 (2307)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.