Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the March interest rate announcement?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (18%) · Yes at 61¢ · $743 held · ends Mar 3, 2027

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Wed, Mar 3, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 18%

Total Value

$742.9

Combined PnL

$156.33

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 61¢

+42% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$614.16

Total Shares1,015

Combined PnL+$215.91

No9 traders

Total Value$128.75

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$59.58

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YoungAlphaGoat	Yesavg 42.5¢	$494.64	$601.96	+$216.91	45% 389-485 (874)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 52.9¢	$110.6	$40	-$17.41	16% 410-2142 (2552)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$49.3	$25.5	-$23.8	17% 1044-5063 (6107)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$13.2	$15.8	+$2.6	42% 5362-7384 (12746)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$19.28	$12.44	-$6.85	24% 285-886 (1171)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$13.2	$12.2	-$1	20% 2351-9197 (11548)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$9.88	$10.27	+$0.39	46% 5566-6636 (12202)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$11.96	$7.8	-$4.16	31% 1996-4503 (6499)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$9.66	$6.74	-$2.92	62% 13111-7938 (21049)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$11.2	$6	-$5.2	25% 1608-4781 (6389)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$6.44	$4.2	-$2.24	72% 12342-4910 (17252)

YoungAlphaGoat

Yes

Invested

$494.64

Value

$601.96

PnL

+$216.91

Record

45%

389-485 (874)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$110.6

Value

$40

PnL

-$17.41

Record

16%

410-2142 (2552)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$49.3

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$23.8

Record

17%

1044-5063 (6107)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$2.6

Record

42%

5362-7384 (12746)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$19.28

Value

$12.44

PnL

-$6.85

Record

24%

285-886 (1171)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.2

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$1

Record

20%

2351-9197 (11548)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$10.27

PnL

+$0.39

Record

46%

5566-6636 (12202)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$11.96

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$4.16

Record

31%

1996-4503 (6499)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$9.66

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$2.92

Record

62%

13111-7938 (21049)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

PnL

-$5.2

Record

25%

1608-4781 (6389)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$6.44

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$2.24

Record

72%

12342-4910 (17252)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.