Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 9

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$248.29

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 72.5¢

+23% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,507

Combined PnL+$218.85

No2 traders

Total Value$133.95

Total Shares282

Combined PnL+$29.45

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 66.7¢	$960.95	$682.65	+$20.03	53% 6381-5587 (11968)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 59.9¢	$441.85	$498.44	+$88.09	50% 1649-1636 (3285)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 49.4¢	$350.34	$461.06	+$110.72	53% 1106-988 (2094)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 42.4¢	$70.41	$74.58	+$7.57	48% 3423-3706 (7129)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$37.5	$59.38	+$21.88	46% 2748-3289 (6037)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$960.95

Value

$682.65

PnL

+$20.03

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$441.85

Value

$498.44

PnL

+$88.09

Record

50%

1649-1636 (3285)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$350.34

Value

$461.06

PnL

+$110.72

Record

53%

1106-988 (2094)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$70.41

Value

$74.58

PnL

+$7.57

Record

48%

3423-3706 (7129)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$59.38

PnL

+$21.88

Record

46%

2748-3289 (6037)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.