Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the March interest rate announcement?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $124 held · ends Mar 3, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$124.14
$0.57
92.8¢ → 95¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $39.9 | $39.9 | -$0 | 25% 290-890 (1180) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $24.18 | $24.18 | +$0 | 45% 5721-6919 (12640) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $24.18 | $24.18 | +$0 | 31% 2028-4529 (6557) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $38.51 | $20.4 | -$0.06 | 16% 416-2177 (2593) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $13.02 | $13.02 | +$0 | 72% 12351-4916 (17267) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.78 | $2.29 | +$0.51 | 20% 2356-9209 (11565) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.06 | $0.17 | +$0.11 | 47% 2045-2306 (4351) |
Invested
$39.9
Value
$39.9
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
290-890 (1180)
Invested
$24.18
Value
$24.18
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
5721-6919 (12640)
Invested
$24.18
Value
$24.18
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
2028-4529 (6557)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$38.51
Value
$20.4
PnL
-$0.06
Record
16%
416-2177 (2593)
Invested
$13.02
Value
$13.02
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
12351-4916 (17267)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.78
Value
$2.29
PnL
+$0.51
Record
20%
2356-9209 (11565)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.17
PnL
+$0.11
Record
47%
2045-2306 (4351)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.