Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the March meeting?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 59¢ · $606 held · ends Mar 17, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$606.25
$131.85
45.9¢ → 58.5¢
+27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
55h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoat | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $395.82 | $540 | +$144.18 | 48% 498-541 (1039) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $39.76 | $29.11 | -$10.65 | 18% 1302-6138 (7440) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.6¢ | $15.42 | $16.8 | +$1.38 | 53% 23170-20401 (43571) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $9.3 | $9.46 | +$0.16 | 20% 2785-10964 (13749) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.6¢ | $39.44 | $8.2 | -$3.79 | 18% 362-1672 (2034) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $2.09 | $2.65 | +$0.57 | 41% 6394-9370 (15764) |
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$395.82
Value
$540
PnL
+$144.18
Record
48%
498-541 (1039)
Invested
$39.76
Value
$29.11
PnL
-$10.65
Record
18%
1302-6138 (7440)
Invested
$15.42
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$1.38
Record
53%
23170-20401 (43571)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$9.3
Value
$9.46
PnL
+$0.16
Record
20%
2785-10964 (13749)
Invested
$39.44
Value
$8.2
PnL
-$3.79
Record
18%
362-1672 (2034)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0.57
Record
41%
6394-9370 (15764)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.