Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the January meeting?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 59¢ · $573 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$573.03
$121.38
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoat | Yesavg 41.7¢ | $372.45 | $513.45 | +$141.01 | 45% 389-485 (874) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $30.8 | $20 | -$5.2 | 16% 416-2177 (2593) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $27.73 | $19.51 | -$8.23 | 17% 1052-5071 (6123) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $12.18 | $8.92 | -$3.26 | 17% 258-1303 (1561) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $8.3 | -$3.1 | 25% 1611-4788 (6399) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.85 | +$0.15 | 31% 2028-4529 (6557) |
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$372.45
Value
$513.45
PnL
+$141.01
Record
45%
389-485 (874)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$30.8
Value
$20
PnL
-$5.2
Record
16%
416-2177 (2593)
Invested
$27.73
Value
$19.51
PnL
-$8.23
Record
17%
1052-5071 (6123)
Invested
$12.18
Value
$8.92
PnL
-$3.26
Record
17%
258-1303 (1561)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$8.3
PnL
-$3.1
Record
25%
1611-4788 (6399)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
31%
2028-4529 (6557)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.