Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$293.33
79.6¢ → 83.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $80.92 | $1.0K | +$224.48 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
 TimeTravelerARB<$100 | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $517.12 | $572.49 | +$55.38 | 41% 2003-2843 (4846) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 24¢ | $105.07 | $366.13 | +$261.06 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $412.05 | $206.36 | -$205.68 | |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $319.26 | $323.33 | +$18.88 | 50% 1695-1689 (3384) |
 macrosteaks | Noavg 80.5¢ | $102.98 | $249.28 | +$49.97 | 55% 3435-2832 (6267) |
Invested
$80.92
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$224.48
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
TimeTravelerARB<$100Invested
$517.12
Value
$572.49
PnL
+$55.38
Record
41%
2003-2843 (4846)
Both legs:
Invested
$319.26
Value
$323.33
PnL
+$18.88
Record
50%
1695-1689 (3384)
macrosteaksInvested
$102.98
Value
$249.28
PnL
+$49.97
Record
55%
3435-2832 (6267)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.