Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Feb 7, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Sun, Feb 7, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 81¢

+16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,356

Combined PnL+$408.58

Yes2 traders

Total Value$707.72

Total Shares3,762

Combined PnL+$810.08

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 65¢	$950.71	$1.4K	+$425.53	53% 1110-993 (2103)
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$2.3K	$696	+$817.48	60% 306-207 (513)
Istaroth	Noavg 82.3¢	$677.85	$657	-$16.95	23% 287-958 (1245)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$19.12	$11.72	-$7.4	56% 45-35 (80)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$950.71

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$425.53

Record

53%

1110-993 (2103)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,319.28

Value

$696

PnL

+$817.48

Record

60%

306-207 (513)

Istaroth

Invested

$677.85

Value

$657

PnL

-$16.95

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.12

Value

$11.72

PnL

-$7.4

Record

56%

45-35 (80)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.