Will the Arizona Cardinals have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 50¢ · $183 held · ends Feb 16, 2027
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$183.01
$60.5
63.3¢ → 50¢
-21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $81.8 | $136 | +$54.2 | 44% 507-657 (1164) |
AU auros2<$100 | Yes | $37.01 | $37.01 | -$0.2 | — 6-1 (7) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $3.5 | $10 | +$6.5 | 64% 1053-596 (1649) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.