Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Anaheim Ducks record 80+ points?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 30¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 50%
$1.6K
$93.18
20.6¢ → 29.5¢
+44% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Noavg 20.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.5K | +$84.33 | 52% 6159-5779 (11938) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $48.84 | $65.6 | +$0.44 | 55% 5195-4278 (9473) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $38.79 | $42.27 | +$3.48 | 64% 1055-598 (1653) |
AU auros2<$100 | Yes | $21.14 | $21.14 | +$4.92 | — 6-1 (7) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.