Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 91¢ · $689 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$688.72
$13.15
85.4¢ → 90.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
590h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletin | Noavg 84.3¢ | $452.77 | $486.32 | +$33.55 | 70% 1192-502 (1694) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $70.8 | $72.4 | +$1.6 | 17% 4524-22229 (26753) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $52.04 | $51.9 | +$0.35 | 51% 327-313 (640) |
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $48 | $28.5 | -$19.5 | 54% 842-718 (1560) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $26.97 | $28.06 | +$1.24 | 55% 16389-13159 (29548) |
 thanksforplayinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $24.5 | $19.75 | -$3.91 | 56% 735-578 (1313) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $1.97 | $1.79 | -$0.18 | 50% 1042-1050 (2092) |
bernardbulletinInvested
$452.77
Value
$486.32
PnL
+$33.55
Record
70%
1192-502 (1694)
2B9S<$100Invested
$70.8
Value
$72.4
PnL
+$1.6
Record
17%
4524-22229 (26753)
Invested
$52.04
Value
$51.9
PnL
+$0.35
Record
51%
327-313 (640)
Invested
$48
Value
$28.5
PnL
-$19.5
Record
54%
842-718 (1560)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$26.97
Value
$28.06
PnL
+$1.24
Record
55%
16389-13159 (29548)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100Invested
$24.5
Value
$19.75
PnL
-$3.91
Record
56%
735-578 (1313)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$1.97
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$0.18
Record
50%
1042-1050 (2092)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.