Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 50¢ · $429 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$428.94
-$104.64
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST Started-with-20-USD | No | $414.86 | $414.86 | -$103.23 | 55% 628-514 (1142) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $12.18 | $14.08 | -$1.41 | 16% 256-1299 (1555) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.