Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.6K
-$26.64
65.5¢ → 88.6¢
+35% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
260h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 81.8¢ | $655.41 | $710.3 | +$54.89 | 56% 15513-12121 (27634) |
HD HDGB | Noavg 36.9¢ | $37.12 | $397.31 | +$78.65 | 50% 189-192 (381) |
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 88.1¢ | $237.6 | $239.07 | +$1.47 | 66% 786-407 (1193) |
ST Started-with-20-USD | Noavg 35.5¢ | $16.65 | $170 | +$92.72 | 55% 606-491 (1097) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $338.11 | $69.86 | -$268.25 | 79% 332-90 (422) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 45.1¢ | $14.37 | $28.25 | +$13.88 | 36% 2121-3802 (5923) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$655.41
Value
$710.3
PnL
+$54.89
Record
56%
15513-12121 (27634)
Invested
$37.12
Value
$397.31
PnL
+$78.65
Record
50%
189-192 (381)
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$237.6
Value
$239.07
PnL
+$1.47
Record
66%
786-407 (1193)
Invested
$16.65
Value
$170
PnL
+$92.72
Record
55%
606-491 (1097)
Invested
$338.11
Value
$69.86
PnL
-$268.25
Record
79%
332-90 (422)
Invested
$14.37
Value
$28.25
PnL
+$13.88
Record
36%
2121-3802 (5923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.