Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in November?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 91¢ · $430 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$430.31
$4.29
90.5¢ → 91¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | Noavg 90.4¢ | $316.37 | $322.07 | +$5.7 | 47% 67-76 (143) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $83.62 | $84.74 | +$1.12 | 39% 1049-1630 (2679) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $16.75 | $15.24 | -$1.51 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $4.78 | $4.25 | -$0.53 | — 1-0 (1) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $4.5 | $4 | -$0.5 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
Invested
$316.37
Value
$322.07
PnL
+$5.7
Record
47%
67-76 (143)
Invested
$83.62
Value
$84.74
PnL
+$1.12
Record
39%
1049-1630 (2679)
Invested
$16.75
Value
$15.24
PnL
-$1.51
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
Invested
$4.78
Value
$4.25
PnL
-$0.53
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.5
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.