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NoNoYesYesYesYes
balthazar<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Thailand be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision Asia 2026 Grand Final?
Resolved No. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 67%
Total Value
$30
Combined PnL
-$6.3
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$30
Total Shares30
Combined PnL-$0.48
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares186
Combined PnL-$5.82
No — 43%Yes — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $20 | -$0.01 | 29% 1113-2674 (3787) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $10 | +$0.01 | 34% 238-461 (699) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $3.52 | — | -$3.52 | 18% 853-3934 (4787) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 42% 2632-3664 (6296) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.39 | — | -$0.39 | 25% 1318-3976 (5294) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.16 | — | -$0.16 | 26% 715-2057 (2772) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $22.32 | $0 | -$0.48 | 43% 5103-6732 (11835) |
NO
northdrawer<$100Invested
$29.7
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.01
Record
29%
1113-2674 (3787)
QU
quietparcel<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.01
Record
34%
238-461 (699)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$3.52
Value
—
PnL
-$3.52
Record
18%
853-3934 (4787)
E4
e46m3CTR<$100Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
42%
2632-3664 (6296)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
$0.39
Value
—
PnL
-$0.39
Record
25%
1318-3976 (5294)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$0.16
Value
—
PnL
-$0.16
Record
26%
715-2057 (2772)
balthazar<$100Invested
$22.32
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.48
Record
43%
5103-6732 (11835)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb738c1a4...f30201
Slug
will-thailand-be-the-jury-winner-in-the-eurovision-asia-2026-grand-final