Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Texas Tech Red Raiders win the 2027 CFP National Championship?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $328 held · ends Jan 26, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Jan 26, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$328.17

Combined PnL

$9.59

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 0.9¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$327.49

Total Shares38,528

Combined PnL+$9.59

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI milkteabobaCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$138.97	$155.18	+$16.21	68% 40-19 (59)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$63.63	$53.91	-$9.71	43% 467-620 (1087)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$45.29	$50.11	+$4.82	65% 909-479 (1388)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$27.52	$25.5	-$2.02	56% 18365-14704 (33069)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$19.79	$19.59	-$0.2	45% 2314-2840 (5154)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$17.04	$15.78	-$1.25	53% 1572-1391 (2963)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.59	$5.58	+$0.98	21% 2284-8696 (10980)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.08	$1.83	+$0.75	41% 1295-1880 (3175)

milkteabobaCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.97

Value

$155.18

PnL

+$16.21

Record

68%

40-19 (59)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.63

Value

$53.91

PnL

-$9.71

Record

43%

467-620 (1087)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.29

Value

$50.11

PnL

+$4.82

Record

65%

909-479 (1388)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.52

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$2.02

Record

56%

18365-14704 (33069)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.79

Value

$19.59

PnL

-$0.2

Record

45%

2314-2840 (5154)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.04

Value

$15.78

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

1572-1391 (2963)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.59

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$0.98

Record

21%

2284-8696 (10980)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.75

Record

41%

1295-1880 (3175)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5052.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5152.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.