Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$113.36
76¢ → 88¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
593h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TheKinginYellow | Noavg 75.5¢ | $489.33 | $597.26 | +$107.93 | 67% 822-396 (1218) |
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $128.29 | $177.89 | +$49.6 | 52% 2083-1955 (4038) |
 TBill1 | Noavg 81¢ | $162 | $177 | +$19 | 45% 145-179 (324) |
 Dr.mett | Noavg 86¢ | $116.96 | $120.36 | +$8.16 | 86% 1386-233 (1619) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $279 | $89.38 | -$71.34 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
TheKinginYellowInvested
$489.33
Value
$597.26
PnL
+$107.93
Record
67%
822-396 (1218)
Invested
$128.29
Value
$177.89
PnL
+$49.6
Record
52%
2083-1955 (4038)
TBill1Invested
$162
Value
$177
PnL
+$19
Record
45%
145-179 (324)
Dr.mettInvested
$116.96
Value
$120.36
PnL
+$8.16
Record
86%
1386-233 (1619)
Invested
$279
Value
$89.38
PnL
-$71.34
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.