Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
$48.92
85¢ → 92.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
4748h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Optimus- | Noavg 83.1¢ | $778.95 | $826.65 | +$47.7 | 61% 1196-756 (1952) |
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 92.5¢ | $29.97 | $114.71 | +$0.19 | — |
AV aviato<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $74.74 | $71.81 | -$2.42 | 84% 2423-446 (2869) |
 TheKinginYellow<$100 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $62.98 | $69.89 | +$6.91 | 68% 827-398 (1225) |
 SlowroastedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $5.9 | $2.45 | -$3.45 | 88% 1987-279 (2266) |
Optimus-Invested
$778.95
Value
$826.65
PnL
+$47.7
Record
61%
1196-756 (1952)
LornaPredictsInvested
$29.97
Value
$114.71
PnL
+$0.19
Record
—
Invested
$74.74
Value
$71.81
PnL
-$2.42
Record
84%
2423-446 (2869)
TheKinginYellow<$100Invested
$62.98
Value
$69.89
PnL
+$6.91
Record
68%
827-398 (1225)
SlowroastedCTR<$100Invested
$5.9
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$3.45
Record
88%
1987-279 (2266)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.