Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.54

Combined PnL

-$12.02

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.54

Total Shares708

Combined PnL-$12.02

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

82h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.33	$0.16	-$0.17	26% 7359-21131 (28490)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yes	$0.16	$0.16	-$5.44	39% 5792-9168 (14960)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yes	$0.06	$0.06	-$2.04	38% 2401-3836 (6237)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.85	$0.06	-$1.8	40% 6571-9852 (16423)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.04	-$1.42	37% 4060-6783 (10843)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.02	-$0.84	36% 600-1081 (1681)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.33	$0.02	-$0.32	32% 3290-7152 (10442)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	27% 614-1677 (2291)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.17

Record

26%

7359-21131 (28490)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$5.44

Record

39%

5792-9168 (14960)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.04

Record

38%

2401-3836 (6237)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.8

Record

40%

6571-9852 (16423)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.42

Record

37%

4060-6783 (10843)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.84

Record

36%

600-1081 (1681)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.32

Record

32%

3290-7152 (10442)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

614-1677 (2291)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

82h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.