Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 18 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

18 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.17

Combined PnL

-$199.26

Smart Money Entry

2.4¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$3.17

Total Shares6,332

Combined PnL-$199.26

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yes	$0.64	$0.64	-$50.72	38% 1203-1987 (3190)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$41.46	$0.58	-$40.88	72% 13834-5358 (19192)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$35.91	$0.43	-$35.48	31% 3256-7119 (10375)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.3	$0.27	-$21.58	39% 315-496 (811)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.92	$0.27	-$0.65	27% 2525-6883 (9408)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.16	$0.16	-$12.62	47% 10345-11812 (22157)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$12.68	$0.16	-$12.52	21% 356-1339 (1695)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.28	$0.09	-$0.19	26% 580-1646 (2226)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.39	$0.09	-$7.24	37% 4033-6775 (10808)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.52	$0.09	-$0.43	42% 837-1172 (2009)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.4	$0.08	-$0.32	35% 1829-3402 (5231)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$7.24	$0.07	-$7.18	28% 2794-7224 (10018)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.06	$0.05	-$0.01	54% 12474-10723 (23197)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$1.57	$0.05	-$1.53	40% 6535-9791 (16326)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$2.76	$0.05	-$2.71	34% 3324-6350 (9674)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.16	$0.04	-$3.06	16% 383-1960 (2343)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.54	$0.03	-$1.98	17% 1328-6547 (7875)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.19	$0.03	-$0.17	49% 6560-6929 (13489)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$50.72

Record

38%

1203-1987 (3190)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.46

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$40.88

Record

72%

13834-5358 (19192)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.91

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$35.48

Record

31%

3256-7119 (10375)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$21.58

Record

39%

315-496 (811)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.65

Record

27%

2525-6883 (9408)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$12.62

Record

47%

10345-11812 (22157)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.68

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$12.52

Record

21%

356-1339 (1695)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.19

Record

26%

580-1646 (2226)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$7.24

Record

37%

4033-6775 (10808)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.43

Record

42%

837-1172 (2009)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.32

Record

35%

1829-3402 (5231)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.24

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$7.18

Record

28%

2794-7224 (10018)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

12474-10723 (23197)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.57

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.53

Record

40%

6535-9791 (16326)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.76

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.71

Record

34%

3324-6350 (9674)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.06

Record

16%

383-1960 (2343)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.98

Record

17%

1328-6547 (7875)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

6560-6929 (13489)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.