Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$1.3K
-$3.52
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $183.46 | $183.02 | -$0.45 | 48% 3408-3684 (7092) |
AK akroll | Noavg 99.6¢ | $165.75 | $165.33 | -$0.41 | 32% 306-649 (955) |
KL klli27 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $164.5 | $164.06 | -$0.44 | 31% 280-619 (899) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $163.3 | $163.11 | -$0.19 | 53% 320-284 (604) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $159.44 | $158.96 | -$0.48 | 30% 251-576 (827) |
LI Likaseent | Noavg 99.7¢ | $133.83 | $133.38 | -$0.45 | 29% 184-455 (639) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $124.17 | $123.88 | -$0.29 | 32% 303-656 (959) |
VA Vale54holi | Noavg 99.7¢ | $124.29 | $123.88 | -$0.41 | 28% 159-410 (569) |
ZE zerone777 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $122.76 | $122.35 | -$0.4 | 41% 379-555 (934) |
Invested
$183.46
Value
$183.02
PnL
-$0.45
Record
48%
3408-3684 (7092)
Invested
$165.75
Value
$165.33
PnL
-$0.41
Record
32%
306-649 (955)
Invested
$164.5
Value
$164.06
PnL
-$0.44
Record
31%
280-619 (899)
Invested
$163.3
Value
$163.11
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
320-284 (604)
Invested
$159.44
Value
$158.96
PnL
-$0.48
Record
30%
251-576 (827)
Invested
$133.83
Value
$133.38
PnL
-$0.45
Record
29%
184-455 (639)
Invested
$124.17
Value
$123.88
PnL
-$0.29
Record
32%
303-656 (959)
Invested
$124.29
Value
$123.88
PnL
-$0.41
Record
28%
159-410 (569)
Invested
$122.76
Value
$122.35
PnL
-$0.4
Record
41%
379-555 (934)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.