Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

20 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$17.25

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 94.7¢

-2% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 20 top traders (100%)16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,248

Combined PnL-$17.25

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

213h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96.5¢	$241.19	$238.25	-$2.94	30% 2683-6207 (8890)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 97.2¢	$191.28	$187.48	-$3.8	15% 65-373 (438)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 96.7¢	$139.23	$137.17	-$2.05	24% 75-243 (318)
balthazar	Noavg 96.4¢	$130.71	$129.22	-$1.49	51% 4634-4520 (9154)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$68.59	$67.83	-$0.76	25% 96-283 (379)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$49.42	$48.86	-$0.56	26% 361-1008 (1369)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$49.42	$48.86	-$0.56	28% 522-1370 (1892)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$49.45	$48.86	-$0.59	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$49.48	$48.86	-$0.62	28% 368-936 (1304)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$49.42	$48.86	-$0.56	30% 513-1183 (1696)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$46.13	$45.55	-$0.57	28% 521-1360 (1881)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$29.34	$28.59	-$0.75	27% 933-2514 (3447)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$25.25	$24.78	-$0.47	39% 1286-2003 (3289)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$22.56	$21.99	-$0.58	49% 86-88 (174)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$19.83	$19.35	-$0.49	42% 374-507 (881)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$11.58	$11.44	-$0.14	79% 348-95 (443)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$10.76	$10.69	-$0.07	53% 5637-5072 (10709)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$9.59	$9.58	-$0	54% 539-462 (1001)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$8.73	$8.63	-$0.1	46% 340-393 (733)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$4.95	$4.82	-$0.13	41% 681-979 (1660)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$241.19

Value

$238.25

PnL

-$2.94

Record

30%

2683-6207 (8890)

smallreceipt

Invested

$191.28

Value

$187.48

PnL

-$3.8

Record

15%

65-373 (438)

quietparcel

Invested

$139.23

Value

$137.17

PnL

-$2.05

Record

24%

75-243 (318)

balthazar

Invested

$130.71

Value

$129.22

PnL

-$1.49

Record

51%

4634-4520 (9154)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$68.59

Value

$67.83

PnL

-$0.76

Record

25%

96-283 (379)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$49.42

Value

$48.86

PnL

-$0.56

Record

26%

361-1008 (1369)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$49.42

Value

$48.86

PnL

-$0.56

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$49.45

Value

$48.86

PnL

-$0.59

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$49.48

Value

$48.86

PnL

-$0.62

Record

28%

368-936 (1304)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$49.42

Value

$48.86

PnL

-$0.56

Record

30%

513-1183 (1696)

akroll<$100

Invested

$46.13

Value

$45.55

PnL

-$0.57

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$28.59

PnL

-$0.75

Record

27%

933-2514 (3447)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$24.78

PnL

-$0.47

Record

39%

1286-2003 (3289)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$22.56

Value

$21.99

PnL

-$0.58

Record

49%

86-88 (174)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.83

Value

$19.35

PnL

-$0.49

Record

42%

374-507 (881)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.58

Value

$11.44

PnL

-$0.14

Record

79%

348-95 (443)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.76

Value

$10.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.59

Value

$9.58

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

539-462 (1001)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.73

Value

$8.63

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

340-393 (733)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$0.13

Record

41%

681-979 (1660)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 20 top traders (100%)16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

213h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.