Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $200 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$200.45
$10.99
89.9¢ → 95.1¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $112.64 | $118.88 | +$6.23 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $34.64 | $38.04 | +$3.4 | 49% 89-93 (182) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $34.9 | $35.93 | +$1.02 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $7.28 | $7.61 | +$0.33 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
Invested
$112.64
Value
$118.88
PnL
+$6.23
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$34.64
Value
$38.04
PnL
+$3.4
Record
49%
89-93 (182)
balthazar<$100Invested
$34.9
Value
$35.93
PnL
+$1.02
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$7.28
Value
$7.61
PnL
+$0.33
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.