Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $959 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$959.32
$67.87
83.9¢ → 89.7¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mombil | Noavg 90¢ | $693.7 | $691.39 | -$1.16 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
HO HotDogs | Noavg 60.7¢ | $128.12 | $199.13 | +$71.01 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $71.95 | $68.79 | -$1.99 | 18% 381-1779 (2160) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.