Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Team Yandex win PARI Universe?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 16¢ · $129 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$128.65
$77.44
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
213h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 60.3¢ | $5.97 | $73.44 | -$1.1 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
YI yishiwucheng<$100 | Noavg 38.3¢ | $10.06 | $26.14 | +$16.07 | 51% 1833-1762 (3595) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.38 | $21.42 | +$58.09 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 ColdWCTR<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $3.74 | $6.8 | +$3.06 | 61% 2021-1298 (3319) |
PO pol2131CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.75 | $0.85 | +$1.32 | 45% 411-497 (908) |
Invested
$5.97
Value
$73.44
PnL
-$1.1
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$10.06
Value
$26.14
PnL
+$16.07
Record
51%
1833-1762 (3595)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$21.42
PnL
+$58.09
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
ColdWCTR<$100Invested
$3.74
Value
$6.8
PnL
+$3.06
Record
61%
2021-1298 (3319)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.85
PnL
+$1.32
Record
45%
411-497 (908)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.