Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed artist for 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 83¢ · $277 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$277.2
$106.36
76.4¢ → 83¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
88h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 65.4¢ | $65.2 | $88.74 | +$23.54 | 47% 3795-4265 (8060) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $98.69 | $83 | +$9.69 | 58% 16807-12135 (28942) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $59.01 | $57.19 | -$1.82 | 52% 30802-28940 (59742) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | $25.89 | $25.89 | +$1.03 | — 4-0 (4) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 84.2¢ | $20.27 | $9.89 | -$0.09 | 77% 12684-3870 (16554) |
 HyperlongCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $7.17 | $8.3 | +$1.13 | 47% 320-366 (686) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $70.22 | $2.44 | +$72.84 | 19% 2858-12194 (15052) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $1.7 | $1.74 | +$0.04 | 23% 1782-6016 (7798) |
Invested
$65.2
Value
$88.74
PnL
+$23.54
Record
47%
3795-4265 (8060)
Invested
$98.69
Value
$83
PnL
+$9.69
Record
58%
16807-12135 (28942)
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.01
Value
$57.19
PnL
-$1.82
Record
52%
30802-28940 (59742)
Invested
$25.89
Value
$25.89
PnL
+$1.03
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$20.27
Value
$9.89
PnL
-$0.09
Record
77%
12684-3870 (16554)
HyperlongCTR<$100Invested
$7.17
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$1.13
Record
47%
320-366 (686)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$70.22
Value
$2.44
PnL
+$72.84
Record
19%
2858-12194 (15052)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.74
PnL
+$0.04
Record
23%
1782-6016 (7798)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.