Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC South?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.0K
$181.73
65.7¢ → 76.5¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 62¢ | $461.79 | $569.78 | +$108 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $438.9 | $301.63 | +$60.56 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 probability | Noavg 68.5¢ | $97.68 | $107.51 | +$9.83 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.6¢ | $44.18 | $46.98 | +$2.8 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $1 | $1.52 | +$0.54 | 52% 5046-4713 (9759) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$461.79
Value
$569.78
PnL
+$108
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
Invested
$438.9
Value
$301.63
PnL
+$60.56
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
probabilityInvested
$97.68
Value
$107.51
PnL
+$9.83
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$44.18
Value
$46.98
PnL
+$2.8
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.52
PnL
+$0.54
Record
52%
5046-4713 (9759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.