Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 25¢ · $40 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$39.76
-$6.88
Research grade
AvoidNo at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $22.11 | $18.76 | -$3.35 | 9% 3-30 (33) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $7.56 | $6.62 | -$0.94 | 28% 530-1372 (1902) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $6.67 | $5.64 | -$1.04 | 81% 60-14 (74) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $5.6 | $4.9 | -$0.7 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $2.8 | $2.45 | -$0.35 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.4 | -$0.5 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
Invested
$22.11
Value
$18.76
PnL
-$3.35
Record
9%
3-30 (33)
Invested
$7.56
Value
$6.62
PnL
-$0.94
Record
28%
530-1372 (1902)
Invested
$6.67
Value
$5.64
PnL
-$1.04
Record
81%
60-14 (74)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$5.6
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0.7
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.35
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.5
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.