Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $65 held · ends Nov 4

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$65.36

Combined PnL

-$16.07

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$53.71

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$0.76

No2 traders

Total Value$11.65

Total Shares832

Combined PnL-$15.31

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 98.9¢	$41.26	$40	-$1.23	17% 393-1939 (2332)
0X 0x90Bf2dbB1ab3b3C1bDd76D73848AFCb19b5799EB-1757018988089CTR<$100	Noavg 6.4¢	$1.09	$11.29	-$13.9	44% 226-288 (514)
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 95.7¢	$6.74	$6.96	+$0.23	48% 6226-6872 (13098)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$6.51	$6.75	+$0.24	56% 15513-12121 (27634)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$1.77	$0.35	-$1.42	49% 1034-1092 (2126)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.26

Value

$40

PnL

-$1.23

Record

17%

393-1939 (2332)

0x90Bf2dbB1ab3b3C1bDd76D73848AFCb19b5799EB-1757018988089CTR<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$11.29

PnL

-$13.9

Record

44%

226-288 (514)

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.74

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

6226-6872 (13098)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.24

Record

56%

15513-12121 (27634)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$1.77

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$1.42

Record

49%

1034-1092 (2126)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.