Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sunderland finish first in UEL league phase?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $139 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$139.22

Combined PnL

-$17.94

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$72.6

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$0.12

Yes8 traders

Total Value$66.62

Total Shares893

Combined PnL-$18.06

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$78.68	$72.6	+$0.12	53% 23826-20970 (44796)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$9.35	$37.63	-$9.02	50% 925-910 (1835)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$13.04	$13.04	-$3.75	58% 16856-12167 (29023)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$5.61	-$1.65	27% 2549-6956 (9505)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$3.95	-$1.17	17% 1362-6604 (7966)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$3.61	-$1.06	61% 864-548 (1412)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$1.58	-$0.47	17% 396-1984 (2380)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$1.19	-$0.35	49% 6588-6944 (13532)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	28% 581-1491 (2072)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$78.68

Value

$72.6

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

23826-20970 (44796)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.35

Value

$37.63

PnL

-$9.02

Record

50%

925-910 (1835)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.04

Value

$13.04

PnL

-$3.75

Record

58%

16856-12167 (29023)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$5.61

PnL

-$1.65

Record

27%

2549-6956 (9505)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$1.17

Record

17%

1362-6604 (7966)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$3.61

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

396-1984 (2380)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

6588-6944 (13532)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

581-1491 (2072)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.