Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sturm Graz finish first in UEL league phase?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.84

Combined PnL

-$50.05

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.84

Total Shares2,862

Combined PnL-$50.05

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+91 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	$1.67	$1.67	-$39.02	31% 3266-7124 (10390)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.1	$0.54	+$0.46	47% 3836-4297 (8133)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.92	$0.4	-$8.52	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$0.07	+$0.04	27% 2536-6889 (9425)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$0.05	-$0.82	61% 863-547 (1410)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.04	-$1.05	49% 6577-6937 (13514)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	28% 576-1486 (2062)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.02	+$0	16% 387-1970 (2357)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.31	25% 471-1448 (1919)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yes	$9.83	$0.01	-$0.25	54% 12531-10868 (23399)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$39.02

Record

31%

3266-7124 (10390)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.54

PnL

+$0.46

Record

47%

3836-4297 (8133)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$8.52

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.04

Record

27%

2536-6889 (9425)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.82

Record

61%

863-547 (1410)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

6577-6937 (13514)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

576-1486 (2062)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

16%

387-1970 (2357)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.31

Record

25%

471-1448 (1919)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

12531-10868 (23399)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+91 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.