Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Stripe have the highest private market valuation at the end of November?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.62

Combined PnL

-$287.77

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.62

Total Shares2,930

Combined PnL-$287.77

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yes	$0.6	$0.6	-$90.25	45% 1839-2238 (4077)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$47.99	$0.47	-$91	53% 12588-11025 (23613)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.37	$0.25	-$50.29	27% 614-1677 (2291)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.1	$0.1	-$20.48	43% 8799-11449 (20248)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.89	$0.07	-$13.43	27% 2547-6955 (9502)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$9.34	$0.06	-$11.99	32% 3290-7152 (10442)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.13	$0.02	-$4.28	17% 396-1983 (2379)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.26	$0.02	-$2.49	37% 4060-6783 (10843)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.11	$0.02	-$3.55	30% 503-1182 (1685)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$90.25

Record

45%

1839-2238 (4077)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.99

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$91

Record

53%

12588-11025 (23613)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$50.29

Record

27%

614-1677 (2291)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$20.48

Record

43%

8799-11449 (20248)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.43

Record

27%

2547-6955 (9502)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.34

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.99

Record

32%

3290-7152 (10442)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.28

Record

17%

396-1983 (2379)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.49

Record

37%

4060-6783 (10843)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.55

Record

30%

503-1182 (1685)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.