Will "Stop The Wedding! - Ashe" be the #2 song this week?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 77¢ · $47 held · ends Nov 13
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$46.54
-$11.83
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdigging<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $38 | $30.8 | -$7.2 | — 1-6 (7) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $13.09 | $10.12 | -$2.97 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.88 | $4.54 | -$1.34 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.4 | $1.08 | -$0.32 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.