Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Steven Snell win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 31¢ · $651 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$650.7
$175.78
26.7¢ → 30.5¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 38¢ | $190 | $367.5 | +$177.5 | 52% 4898-4433 (9331) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $271.69 | $269.9 | -$1.79 | 55% 443-357 (800) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $10.42 | $10.65 | +$0.22 | 77% 11055-3381 (14436) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $2.8 | $2.65 | -$0.15 | 50% 1637-1628 (3265) |
Invested
$190
Value
$367.5
PnL
+$177.5
Record
52%
4898-4433 (9331)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$271.69
Value
$269.9
PnL
-$1.79
Record
55%
443-357 (800)
Invested
$10.42
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$0.22
Record
77%
11055-3381 (14436)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
1637-1628 (3265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.