Will Stephen Curry win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $909 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$909.42

Combined PnL

-$3.84

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 99¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$895.89

Total Shares905

Combined PnL+$12.67

Yes4 traders

Total Value$13.53

Total Shares2,089

Combined PnL-$16.52

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 97.4¢	$694.27	$705.49	+$11.22	53% 29797-26632 (56429)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$63.68	$63.68	+$0.24	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
Haradwaith<$100	No	$6.08	$62.42	-$2.14	41% 6396-9374 (15770)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$66.85	$32.64	+$2.2	39% 3180-4986 (8166)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$14.26	$14.26	-$0	52% 6365-5987 (12352)
AU auros2<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$10.15	$10.75	+$0.59	— 4-0 (4)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$30.37	$7.95	-$17.52	45% 2914-3566 (6480)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$6.73	$6.66	+$0.56	36% 2034-3661 (5695)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.07	$3.22	+$2.14	18% 4435-20817 (25252)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.33	$2.2	-$1.13	55% 3162-2559 (5721)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.2	$0.17	-$0.01	44% 6615-8264 (14879)

balthazar

Invested

$694.27

Value

$705.49

PnL

+$11.22

Record

53%

29797-26632 (56429)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$63.68

Value

$63.68

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$6.08

Value

$62.42

PnL

-$2.14

Record

41%

6396-9374 (15770)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$66.85

Value

$32.64

PnL

+$2.2

Record

39%

3180-4986 (8166)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$14.26

Value

$14.26

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

6365-5987 (12352)

auros2<$100

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.59

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.37

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$17.52

Record

45%

2914-3566 (6480)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$0.56

Record

36%

2034-3661 (5695)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$3.22

PnL

+$2.14

Record

18%

4435-20817 (25252)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$1.13

Record

55%

3162-2559 (5721)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.01

Record

44%

6615-8264 (14879)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.