Will StepFun be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $209 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$208.95
-$5.31
99.7¢ → 97.2¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $124.6 | $121.5 | -$3.1 | 18% 60-275 (335) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $39.84 | $38.88 | -$0.96 | 51% 76-73 (149) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.85 | $38.85 | -$1 | 50% 4565-4478 (9043) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.72 | -$0.25 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
Invested
$124.6
Value
$121.5
PnL
-$3.1
Record
18%
60-275 (335)
Invested
$39.84
Value
$38.88
PnL
-$0.96
Record
51%
76-73 (149)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.85
Value
$38.85
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
4565-4478 (9043)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.72
PnL
-$0.25
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.