Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $299 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$299.11
-$0.63
99.4¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $94.98 | $94.64 | -$0.34 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $74.33 | $74.33 | +$0 | 18% 60-275 (335) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $59.63 | $59.4 | -$0.23 | 50% 4565-4478 (9043) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $35.78 | $35.68 | -$0.11 | 37% 275-474 (749) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.73 | -$0.09 | 8% 32-370 (402) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5.02 | $5 | -$0.02 | 38% 588-940 (1528) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.19 | $0.33 | +$0.15 | 13% 16-109 (125) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$94.98
Value
$94.64
PnL
-$0.34
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$74.33
Value
$74.33
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
60-275 (335)
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.63
Value
$59.4
PnL
-$0.23
Record
50%
4565-4478 (9043)
Invested
$35.78
Value
$35.68
PnL
-$0.11
Record
37%
275-474 (749)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.73
PnL
-$0.09
Record
8%
32-370 (402)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.02
Record
38%
588-940 (1528)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.33
PnL
+$0.15
Record
13%
16-109 (125)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.