Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 48¢ · $6K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
1 arb excluded
$6.2K
-$516.32
45.4¢ → 48¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 46.4¢ | $3.6K | $2.9K | -$678.79 | 53% 3035-2715 (5750) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 59.1¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$107.54 | 27% 281-776 (1057) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$28.89 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$78.65 | |
 eCashCTR | Yesavg 34.6¢ | $231.03 | $270.13 | +$39.1 | 68% 322-150 (472) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 58.2¢ | $162 | $161.37 | -$0.63 | 77% 11133-3396 (14529) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 54¢ | $207.5 | $137.12 | +$7.07 | 57% 13139-10016 (23155) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 53.2¢ | $782.44 | $125.87 | +$112.81 | 53% 6327-5543 (11870) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $53 | $57.99 | +$5 | 73% 8239-3103 (11342) |
BI BikesAreTheBikes<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $51.84 | $50.96 | -$0.88 | 39% 1759-2790 (4549) |
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$3,565.26
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$678.79
Record
53%
3035-2715 (5750)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$2,699.46
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$107.54
Record
27%
281-776 (1057)
Both legs:
eCashCTRInvested
$231.03
Value
$270.13
PnL
+$39.1
Record
68%
322-150 (472)
Invested
$162
Value
$161.37
PnL
-$0.63
Record
77%
11133-3396 (14529)
Invested
$207.5
Value
$137.12
PnL
+$7.07
Record
57%
13139-10016 (23155)
Invested
$782.44
Value
$125.87
PnL
+$112.81
Record
53%
6327-5543 (11870)
Invested
$53
Value
$57.99
PnL
+$5
Record
73%
8239-3103 (11342)
Invested
$51.84
Value
$50.96
PnL
-$0.88
Record
39%
1759-2790 (4549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.