Will Spencer Huang be the next CEO of NVIDIA?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $178 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$178.39
$0.49
99.7¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.8¢ | $105.85 | $105.58 | -$0.27 | 53% 1614-1416 (3030) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $49.7 | $49.9 | +$0.2 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $20.33 | $20.3 | -$0.03 | 48% 462-508 (970) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $1.09 | $1.1 | +$0 | 26% 1244-3525 (4769) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.69 | $0.86 | +$0.17 | 42% 13-18 (31) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.24 | $0.65 | +$0.41 | 13% 28-182 (210) |
Invested
$105.85
Value
$105.58
PnL
-$0.27
Record
53%
1614-1416 (3030)
Invested
$49.7
Value
$49.9
PnL
+$0.2
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
Invested
$20.33
Value
$20.3
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
462-508 (970)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
1244-3525 (4769)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$0.69
Value
$0.86
PnL
+$0.17
Record
42%
13-18 (31)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.65
PnL
+$0.41
Record
13%
28-182 (210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.