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7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $343 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$343.35
-$1.21
99.9¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 42%
Freshness
Late
159h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.63 | -$0.3 | 29% 858-2135 (2993) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $69.86 | $69.65 | -$0.21 | 40% 1426-2156 (3582) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $65.11 | $64.85 | -$0.26 | 44% 1080-1379 (2459) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $64.77 | $64.58 | -$0.19 | 50% 4571-4481 (9052) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.85 | -$0.12 | 9% 38-370 (408) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.9 | -$0.06 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.9 | -$0.06 | 27% 909-2509 (3418) |
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.63
PnL
-$0.3
Record
29%
858-2135 (2993)
Invested
$69.86
Value
$69.65
PnL
-$0.21
Record
40%
1426-2156 (3582)
Invested
$65.11
Value
$64.85
PnL
-$0.26
Record
44%
1080-1379 (2459)
balthazar<$100Invested
$64.77
Value
$64.58
PnL
-$0.19
Record
50%
4571-4481 (9052)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0.12
Record
9%
38-370 (408)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.06
Record
27%
909-2509 (3418)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.