Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $287 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$286.7

Combined PnL

-$68.74

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 96.4¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$261.83

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$65.34

Yes5 traders

Total Value$24.88

Total Shares342

Combined PnL-$134.08

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

4918h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

62 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tja	Noavg 91.2¢	$114.57	$121.2	+$6.62	73% 875-324 (1199)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$94.58	$63.81	+$31.6	39% 1020-1574 (2594)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$68.65	$40.14	+$0.49	61% 15751-10074 (25825)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 96¢	$26.37	$26.89	+$0.52	77% 12627-3871 (16498)
CR cry.eth2CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$291.83	$18.45	-$94.56	39% 10170-15771 (25941)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 24¢	$9.6	$9.79	+$26.1	50% 10277-10116 (20393)
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$23.84	$2.86	-$20.97	51% 2206-2082 (4288)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$19.79	$2.45	-$17.35	17% 4484-21727 (26211)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$2.32	$0.86	-$1.45	20% 2805-11188 (13993)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yes	$0.26	$0.26	+$0.26	33% 7007-13993 (21000)

tja

Invested

$114.57

Value

$121.2

PnL

+$6.62

Record

73%

875-324 (1199)

flow-trader-at-optiver<$100

Invested

$94.58

Value

$63.81

PnL

+$31.6

Record

39%

1020-1574 (2594)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$68.65

Value

$40.14

PnL

+$0.49

Record

61%

15751-10074 (25825)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$26.37

Value

$26.89

PnL

+$0.52

Record

77%

12627-3871 (16498)

cry.eth2CTR

Yes

Invested

$291.83

Value

$18.45

PnL

-$94.56

Record

39%

10170-15771 (25941)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$26.1

Record

50%

10277-10116 (20393)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.84

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$20.97

Record

51%

2206-2082 (4288)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.79

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$17.35

Record

17%

4484-21727 (26211)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.32

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$1.45

Record

20%

2805-11188 (13993)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.26

Record

33%

7007-13993 (21000)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

4918h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

62 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.