Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $189 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$189.05

Combined PnL

$17.5

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 97.9¢

+28% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$186.03

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$38.22

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.01

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$20.72

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tja	Noavg 91.2¢	$114.57	$121.2	+$6.62	73% 877-324 (1201)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$33.23	$64.83	+$31.6	39% 1025-1574 (2599)
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$23.84	$2.86	-$20.97	51% 2216-2087 (4303)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$1.56	$0.15	+$0.25	33% 7013-13992 (21005)

tja

Invested

$114.57

Value

$121.2

PnL

+$6.62

Record

73%

877-324 (1201)

flow-trader-at-optiver<$100

Invested

$33.23

Value

$64.83

PnL

+$31.6

Record

39%

1025-1574 (2599)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.84

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$20.97

Record

51%

2216-2087 (4303)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

33%

7013-13992 (21005)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.