Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SpaceX be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.31

Combined PnL

-$20.95

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares616

Combined PnL-$20.95

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$5.34	$0.08	-$5.27	25% 90-272 (362)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$3.37	$0.05	-$3.32	37% 3439-5885 (9324)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$3.1	$0.05	-$3.06	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$2.07	$0.03	-$2.04	26% 116-337 (453)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$2.23	$0.03	-$2.19	30% 2939-6893 (9832)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$1.72	$0.03	-$1.7	33% 73-145 (218)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$1.55	$0.02	-$1.53	63% 451-268 (719)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$1.03	$0.02	-$1.02	27% 947-2550 (3497)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$0.83	$0.01	-$0.82	11% 6-47 (53)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0	+$0	47% 117-130 (247)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.34

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$5.27

Record

25%

90-272 (362)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.37

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$3.32

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$3.06

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.04

Record

26%

116-337 (453)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.23

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.19

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.72

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.7

Record

33%

73-145 (218)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.53

Record

63%

451-268 (719)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.02

Record

27%

947-2550 (3497)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.82

Record

11%

6-47 (53)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

117-130 (247)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.