Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 20 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

20 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (95%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $64 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 95%

Total Value

$64.47

Combined PnL

-$210.58

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 0.1¢

-97% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 21 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$59.97

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes20 traders

Total Value$4.5

Total Shares7,967

Combined PnL-$210.61

No — 5%Yes — 95%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 95% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.97	+$0.03	53% 23789-20956 (44745)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yes	$1.22	$1.22	-$55.58	38% 1223-2007 (3230)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$37.4	$0.7	-$55.27	72% 13933-5547 (19480)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$20.5	$0.61	-$19.89	32% 3287-7146 (10433)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.44	$0.28	-$1.17	39% 320-506 (826)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.75	$0.27	-$0.47	27% 2544-6903 (9447)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$8.24	$0.2	-$7.66	30% 475-1117 (1592)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.21	$0.17	-$0.04	27% 610-1662 (2272)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.16	$0.16	-$12.62	47% 10377-11838 (22215)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.43	$0.16	-$12.52	22% 369-1344 (1713)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.48	$0.15	-$12.21	42% 903-1231 (2134)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.49	$0.12	-$0.37	35% 1841-3407 (5248)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$6.8	$0.09	-$6.83	28% 2872-7382 (10254)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.39	$0.09	-$7.24	37% 4057-6782 (10839)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.13	$0.07	-$5.89	53% 12559-10942 (23501)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$1.57	$0.05	-$1.53	40% 6562-9840 (16402)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$2.76	$0.05	-$2.71	34% 3340-6355 (9695)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$3.06	17% 394-1979 (2373)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.05	$0.03	-$1.98	17% 1358-6572 (7930)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.19	$0.03	-$1.98	49% 6587-6938 (13525)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.42	$0.02	-$1.61	23% 1807-6053 (7860)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

23789-20956 (44745)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$55.58

Record

38%

1223-2007 (3230)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.4

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$55.27

Record

72%

13933-5547 (19480)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.5

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$19.89

Record

32%

3287-7146 (10433)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$1.17

Record

39%

320-506 (826)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.47

Record

27%

2544-6903 (9447)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.24

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$7.66

Record

30%

475-1117 (1592)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.04

Record

27%

610-1662 (2272)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$12.62

Record

47%

10377-11838 (22215)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$12.52

Record

22%

369-1344 (1713)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$12.21

Record

42%

903-1231 (2134)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.37

Record

35%

1841-3407 (5248)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.8

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$6.83

Record

28%

2872-7382 (10254)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$7.24

Record

37%

4057-6782 (10839)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$5.89

Record

53%

12559-10942 (23501)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.57

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.53

Record

40%

6562-9840 (16402)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.76

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.71

Record

34%

3340-6355 (9695)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.06

Record

17%

394-1979 (2373)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.98

Record

17%

1358-6572 (7930)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.98

Record

49%

6587-6938 (13525)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.61

Record

23%

1807-6053 (7860)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 21 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 95% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.