Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 39¢ · $909 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
2 arb excluded
$908.93
$150.32
26.2¢ → 38.6¢
+48% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
104h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $326.13 | $497.21 | +$171.86 | 48% 492-539 (1031) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 53.2¢ | $324.24 | $218.37 | -$36.45 | 14% 508-3080 (3588) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53.2¢ | $119.1 | $131.7 | -$9.29 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.4¢ | $108.4 | $86.67 | -$27.16 | |
 Hyperlong<$100 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $83.04 | $58.32 | -$20.95 | 47% 317-362 (679) |
 LornaPredictsARB<$100 | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $47.74 | $46.16 | -$1.58 | 20% 2781-10948 (13729) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $24.22 | $23.22 | -$1 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.3¢ | $23.52 | $22.94 | -$0.58 | |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yes | $38.7 | $38.7 | +$0 | 40% 9836-14980 (24816) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $39.75 | $37.09 | -$2.66 | 53% 8421-7496 (15917) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $21.79 | $6.88 | +$3.45 | 76% 12513-3844 (16357) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $7.25 | $5.88 | -$1.37 | 49% 8976-9501 (18477) |
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$326.13
Value
$497.21
PnL
+$171.86
Record
48%
492-539 (1031)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$324.24
Value
$218.37
PnL
-$36.45
Record
14%
508-3080 (3588)
Both legs:
Hyperlong<$100Invested
$83.04
Value
$58.32
PnL
-$20.95
Record
47%
317-362 (679)
LornaPredictsARB<$100Invested
$47.74
Value
$46.16
PnL
-$1.58
Record
20%
2781-10948 (13729)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.7
Value
$38.7
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
9836-14980 (24816)
Invested
$39.75
Value
$37.09
PnL
-$2.66
Record
53%
8421-7496 (15917)
Invested
$21.79
Value
$6.88
PnL
+$3.45
Record
76%
12513-3844 (16357)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$5.88
PnL
-$1.37
Record
49%
8976-9501 (18477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.