Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$4.69

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 99.2¢

+33% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,818

Combined PnL-$9.31

No1 trader

Total Value$2

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$14

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

482h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
noreasapa	Yesavg 92.7¢	$684.46	$731.96	+$47.51	92% 3520-323 (3843)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 30.4¢	$383.91	$550.78	-$51.05	36% 14340-25707 (40047)
OraculumNobius	Yesavg 99.9¢	$500	$496	-$4	90% 5305-607 (5912)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 28.8¢	$65.08	$27.31	-$1.77	55% 302-251 (553)
nicoco89CTR	Noavg 73¢	$146	$2	+$14	65% 1074-579 (1653)

noreasapa

Yes

Invested

$684.46

Value

$731.96

PnL

+$47.51

Record

92%

3520-323 (3843)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$383.91

Value

$550.78

PnL

-$51.05

Record

36%

14340-25707 (40047)

OraculumNobius

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$496

PnL

-$4

Record

90%

5305-607 (5912)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.08

Value

$27.31

PnL

-$1.77

Record

55%

302-251 (553)

nicoco89CTR

Invested

$146

Value

PnL

+$14

Record

65%

1074-579 (1653)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

482h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.