Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will South African inflation be between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.0¢ · $5 held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$4.59
-$2.84
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
155h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $1.91 | $1.69 | -$0.22 | 45% 32135-39276 (71411) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.08 | $1.52 | -$1.6 | 25% 697-2083 (2780) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $0.99 | $0.99 | -$1.04 | 52% 168-153 (321) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.07 | $0.28 | +$0 | 15% 5011-29434 (34445) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $0.08 | $0.1 | +$0.02 | 14% 9535-61062 (70597) |
Invested
$1.91
Value
$1.69
PnL
-$0.22
Record
45%
32135-39276 (71411)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$1.52
PnL
-$1.6
Record
25%
697-2083 (2780)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$1.04
Record
52%
168-153 (321)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0
Record
15%
5011-29434 (34445)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.1
PnL
+$0.02
Record
14%
9535-61062 (70597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.